How many years of oil do we have left?

Answers

Equllizer answered the question How many years of oil do we have left?

It depends on the growth rate of the population. It is assumed that the population will peak at 9.5 billion in 15 years. At this population, we will have 3.5 or so really DEMANDING the oil, with a 600 million being the *prime consumers (USA amongst these 600 million). These are different castes....

3 of them, the 3.5 consumes by-products but does not use oil directly, and there are like 2.1 that use directly and then there are the "heavy" lifters which are 600 million.

If we peak at 9.5, and the economic developement turns 30% of 2.1 into heavy lifters as expected, and the 3.5 by products and some direct use, turns into 4.7 as expected...And the rest of the world keeps on growing industrially and economically, adding to demand.

Then the oil supply will run out in 120 years.

However, before then, the 60 year mark will give rise to 250 dollar per barrel oil, which will drastically curb demand (people will either just learn how to live without oil, or become more efficient due to price increase.)...This is also expected...

Then the actual demand will go down, maybe even global economic growth and population...which some models predict would actually shrink even though economically the world would be healthy....especially if the population decreases to 7.1 billion through goverment intervention...

This would decrease the rates...and make oil even more prolonged due to less demand ----which is the most probable thing to happen...

If this happens, as expected, then we will have a 450 life expectancy...

And before that life expectancy is over, most authorities agree that we will have found alternative ways to sustain our economy...

Then it is expected for global pop to peak at about 6.5 billion, and stay that way for some time until some very advanced technology that brings plentiful energy will allow the human race to have sustainable exponential growth again.

So I would say, you have a 500 year lifespan, due to our increase of efficiency that will inevitably happen..

However, if we keep on being inefficient ,and people pay 300 dollar per gallon in the same quantity they pay now for gas, then oil may run out in 60 years...But market forces will naturally force people to cut on expenses and become more efficient with energy, which will decrease global demand, and thus, expand our oil life-expectancy..

There are a few catastrophic scenarios where pop reaches 13 billion, but this will gladly not happen, due to China's one-child polciy....which in my opinion, saved this planet's resources and our race from destruction.

How many years of oil left?